Research Project · 2026

Bridging Japanese Experience
with Thai Policy Needs

Disaster Risk Management in Aging Societies

61%
of Global Disaster Deaths Occur in Asia
PI: Dr. Tadashi Nakasu
Institution: Chulalongkorn University
Period: 2026
Funded by: The Univers Foundation 2025 Research Grant (Grant No. 25-03-221)
Research Context

The Double Threat

East Asia faces a convergence of risks: rapid population aging colliding with intensifying climate disasters. Thailand is hurtling toward the demographic crisis Japan has already faced. Japan's recent history serves as a critical "crystal ball" for Thailand's future.

Theoretical Framework

The "Infrastructure Trap"

Conventional wisdom suggests that more aid equals better recovery. Bates & Peacock's Theory argues that disaster recovery merely accelerates a community's pre-disaster trajectories.

Pre-Disaster Population Decline
↓
Disaster Event
↓
Accelerated Decline — even with massive aid

Key Insight

Fundamental Vulnerability

Infrastructure without people is not resilience. Investing billions in seawalls for a town that will be empty in 20 years represents a fundamental policy failure.

Evidence Base

The Japanese Lesson

Evidence from the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake (GEJET) and the 1993 Okushiri Tsunami demonstrates that engineering solutions alone cannot sustain shrinking communities.

Research Gap

The Knowledge Transfer

Thailand has yet to benefit from Japan's hard-won experience. This project constructs the first systematic policy bridge between the two nations' disaster–aging nexus.

Case Study

The Okushiri Warning, 1993–2015

Following the 1993 tsunami, Okushiri Town received massive reconstruction funding. Yet its population continued to decline. The data below reveal a stark disconnect between financial investment and demographic reality.

Reconstruction Investment by Sector (Billion ¥)

Source: Okushiri Town Recovery Data

Population Trajectory vs. Recovery Period

Source: National Census of Japan

Demographic Evidence

Aging Acceleration in Iwate Prefecture

The proportion of residents aged 65+ across key disaster-affected cities rose sharply from 1990 to 2020, compounding community vulnerability to future hazards.

Figure: Percentage of Population Aged 65+ (1990–2020) · Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan

Project Design

Research Strategy: The Bridge

Source Sites

Iwate & Miyagi Prefectures

  • High depopulation rates
  • Post-2011 recovery lessons
  • Anticipatory community archives

Knowledge

Transfer

→
TH

Target Sites

Thailand (TBD)

  • High aging rates
  • Coastal & flood risk areas
  • Pre-crisis demographic stage
Project Schedule

Phase Timeline, 2026

Phase 1
February – March
Kickoff meeting, systematic literature review, and Japan fieldwork logistics preparation.
Phase 2
April – June
On-site data collection in Iwate and Miyagi Prefectures. In-depth interviews with elderly residents and local authorities.
Phase 3
July – October
Comparative socio-demographic analysis. Drafting of Japan–Thailand transferability framework.
Phase 4
November – January 2027
Final policy report and recommendations for Thai disaster management authorities.
Field Context

The Research Setting

Disaster Risk Management in Aging Societies – Bridging Japanese Experience with Thai Policy Needs

Research site: Coastal communities of northeastern Japan.

Research Updates

Project Blog

Field notes, progress reports, and findings from the research team.

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